Monday, April 02, 2007

Wisconsin Governor Tommy Tompson Is In

Democratic Fundraising Numbers Roll In

He thought about it in 2000, and it leaked out last week, but the main stream media found and reported it; the "boy from Elroy", former Wisconsin Governor Tommy Thompson, is in the hunt for the Republican Presidential nomination.

His announcement came with what might be one of the best Iraq solutions offered from the 2008 Presidential field.

Thompson will be holding events this Wednesday, April 4 in Wisconsin and Iowa:


Milwaukee Event
Time: 9 a.m. CDT
Location: Messmer High School - Tommy G. Thompson Athletic Center
742 W. Capitol Drive, Milwaukee, WI


Iowa Event
Time: 12 p.m. CDT
Location: 7 Flags Event Center
2100 NW 100th Street, Clive, Iowa

Could he pull it off? Consider these points:
  • His announcement on yesterday's "This Week" on ABC trumped any story regarding fund-raising totals by other Republican nominees.
  • Thompson is incredibly strong at retail politics and Wisconsin borders Iowa (Thompson grew up less than 100 miles away) which will provide an influx of volunteers and play to mid-west allegiances - two huge advantages in the first caucus of the 2008 election.
  • The endless accounts of how dissatisfied conservatives are with their field of Republican candidates. Playing to this is Thompson's talking point that he is "the only reliable conservative." The Des Moines Register quoted it back here and two weeks later here.
  • As a White House cabinet member from 2001-2005, he was secretary of Health and Human Services back when Bush was still popular enough to barely get reelected.
  • Before joining the Bush administration, he was the nation's longest-serving governor and will hand the perennial battle-ground state of Wisconsin's electoral votes to the Republican for the first time since Reagan
  • He has a proven track record of new ideas and change including the overhaul of Wisconsin's welfare system, some of which filtered up into the Clinton welfare redo (both with their detractors). Its what David Broder called Thompson's need to "fight the status quo" at the end of Broder's column regarding Thompson's departure from HHS.
  • He heads a health-care think tank, a major issue that the Democrats own on the national stage.
With the best idea about Iraq to date, Thompson said he would demand that the Iraqi government vote as to whether it wanted the U.S. to remain in the country. If the answer were yes, "it immediately gives a degree of legitimacy." If the answer were no, "we would get out, absolutely. It's a duly elected government." Quells the idea of cutting and running when the "sovereign" nation asks you to leave. This would also endure the Iraqi government to its people, being able to do something, especially as insurgents seem to make things worse. The blog Average Joe has more quotes from Thompson.

Democrats should unilaterally take up this stratagem. It'll kill Thompson's primary dreams, but as a way to honorably (not cut-and-run) get the troops out of Iraq and end the occupation, it's an idea that is win-win.

Thompson's biggest drawbacks are the limited pool of financial and political power from his home state of Wisconsin, and at HHS the flu vaccine shortage in the fall of 2004 and the anthrax scare which has yet to be solved.

Today of course the Democratic numbers trumped all things political with Barack Obama continuing to shine. USA Today placed Hilary Clinton's faux $36 million raised in its front page side bar (above the fold). The real number was $25 million from 50,000 contributors. Obama '08 pulled in $22 million from over 83,000 people.

That is impressive for two intertwining reasons. First is the weight of Rodham Clinton's insider contacts. Former DNC Chair and major fundraiser Terry McCauligh is her campaign chair, President Bill Clinton is an obvious asset and her cash crazy US Senate races have all combined to produce what should be the most productive fundraising call list ever. Ever.

Add to that the idea that Rodham Clinton has been running for years, and odds are that she had numerous verbal commitments that only required to be contacted. A cornucopia of low hanging fruit, in fundraising vernacular, who were willing to give $2300 for both the primary and general elections. This is the case, considering the estimated $500 per contributor for Clinton versus an estimated $265 per contributor for Obama.

As the less experienced candidate, especially against the insider heavy Clinton campaign, Obama's numbers are simply astounding. A clear advantage in donors puts Obama in drivers seat when you consider that the low-dollar donors will also be volunteers. As for the experience question, see the t-shirt graphic to the right and remember that Pedro won.

In the end, however, both dollars and volunteers have been poorly used (we're looking at you Joe Trippi and Howard Dean). Before now, the highest off-year, first-quarter total was $13.5 million reported in 1995 by Republican Texas Sen. Phil Gramm. That didn't help him secure the Republican nomination which was won by Viagra spokesman Sen. Bob Dole.

Rounding out the Democratic contenders are John Edwards, who raised more than $14 million — twice his first-quarter total in 2003 and also beating Gramm's old record — from more than 37,000 donors. New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson raised more than $6 million.

All first-quarter reports are due April 15 at the Federal Election Commission.

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